After Harry Jones’ great analysis last week, it is timely to consider what Opta data tells us to expect going into the qualifying finals. Reds’ short passing game and strong defence needed to down Crusaders While fighting against a history of no Australian team winning a final in New Zealand, the Reds have a lot to be optimistic about as they head to Christchurch to take on the Crusaders. The Reds have a strong advantage over the Crusaders in their gainline success (ranked 3rd in the competition vs the Crusaders’ 9th), using short passes to gain territory (ranked 4th). This was on show in their first try against the Crusaders in round four. After gaining the ball on their own 22 metre line, quick hands from Fraser McReight unlocked a barnstorming run from Josh Canham before three more quick passes saw Filipo Daugunu over the line. What wasn’t on show was that the Reds usually boast the best tackle success in the competition and the fewest linebreaks resulting from their missed tackles. Realising their strong defensive record will be vital for a Reds victory this weekend. Crusaders love to keep it tight and go down the blindside (ranked 2nd for both), but when they do go through the hands, they go wide (ranked 3rd) with long passes (ranked 2nd). The Crusaders also boast the highest maul success in the competition, while the Reds rank second for maul tries per game behind the Western Force. The Crusaders will come out swinging, scoring most of their points in the first half (ranked 2nd), but if the Reds can hold possession and execute their short passing game, while sticking their tackles, they have the tools to come home strong and pull off a famous win. (Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images) Set piece key to Brumbies success over the Hurricanes Turning to the Brumbies vs Hurricanes, the Hurricanes are the most dangerous carriers in the competition; topping the charts for dominant carries and tackle evasions, while also possessing the second most successful offload game. The Hurricanes rarely go blindside (ranked 10th), instead playing wide (ranked 2nd) with long passes (ranked 1st) to get over rushing defenders. They are particularly likely to score from kick returns (ranked 1st) as they take advantage of broken play. This was all shown to good effect in their first try against the Brumbies in round 11, with a kick return leading to Callum Harkin, Du’Plessis Kerifi, Tevita Mafile’o and Billy Proctor all evading tackles and/or completing offloads in quick succession to keep the ball alive, before Proctor scored in the corner. The Brumbies’ smaller wingers were left particularly exposed that night. While the Hurricanes dominate through their carries, the Brumbies dominate through successful scrums (ranked 2nd), lineouts (ranked 1st) and mauls (ranked 2nd), with 75% of their tries coming off set piece. In open play, the Brumbies often play off flyhalf (ranked 2nd) as they build the phase count and starve the opposition of possession (1st for carries). (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images) This can be seen in their final try against the Hurricanes in round 11, with a 20 metre lineout leading to six phases of tight passing to get over the gainline before spinning the ball wide for Andy Muirhead to score in the corner. To defeat the Hurricanes this weekend, the Brumbies will need to hold onto possession, stick their tackles and contain the Hurricane’s offload game. Ensuring kicks go into touch will be important to leverage their set piece and negate the Hurricanes’ counter attack. Chiefs rely on width while the Blues keep it tight Lastly, looking to the Chiefs vs Blues, they both top gainline success in the competition, with the Chiefs better at tackle evasion (ranked 5th vs 10th) while the Blues specialise in offloads (ranked 1st vs 7th). The Blues are the leaders in tight phase play off scrum half (ranked 1st), while the Chiefs prefer to play wider off flyhalf. Both have proficient mauls but it is not a core part of their games, each only scoring a maul try once every four games. Where the Blues have fallen down is their scrum success (ranked 8th), which may struggle with the Chiefs having the best scrum in the competition. Expect the Blues to score most of their tries in the first half, while the Chiefs come home with a wet sail. After an intense season, the Reds and Brumbies are flying the flag for Aussie rugby. They both have paths to victory so let’s bring on the finals and get the job done.
Source: The Roar